We had a conference call with the management of Navneet Publications India (Navneet) and the key takeaways from the same are as follows.
Publication business: Navneet’s core publication business, which registered a moderate growth of 4.3% year on year (yoy) in H1FY2009 (adversely affected by government’s initiative to provide free books in schools under Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan), is expected to achieve a better growth of around 18.5% in H2FY2009 on the back of better sales volume and price hike of 10-12% in 21-Question sets (for standard 10 and 12). We expect the publication business to achieve a moderate growth of 7.3% yoy in FY2009 (as against 22.0% yoy in FY2008). With no major syllabus changes scheduled in FY2009 and FY2010, we expect the business to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over FY2008-10.
Stationery business: The stationery business registered a robust growth of 57.7% in H1FY2009 on account of strong international sales (international sales account for 35% of stationery business’ revenues), which grew by 320% on account of reduced competition from neighbouring countries. The company is focusing on introducing products in paper and non-paper stationery product category and expects it to be the future revenue driver of this business. Thus, overall, we expect this business to register a growth of around 40% yoy in FY2009.
New initiatives:
Leveraging on its brand image, Navneet is planning to introduce study guides in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
The company has introduced Urdu publications in Maharashtra (Urdu is the second medium of instruction in schools of Maharastra after Marathi). Through Urdu publications Navneet has derived revenues of Rs2.5 crore in FY2008 and expect it to grow by 30-40% going forward.
The company is also focusing on enhancing its space in publication segment by introducing entrance exam books for medical and BEd students.
Navneet’s e-learning initiative has got good acceptance in Gujarat and Maharashtra. The company has tied up with 150 schools in Maharashtra and 400 schools in Gujarat and is expecting revenues of Rs1 crore in FY2009. However the big push in revenues and profits from the venture will come only on the sale of e-learning products to students (retail), which the company plans to launch from April 2009 (before the start of next academic year).
OPM to remain under pressure: The operating profit margin (OPM) of the company declined by 206.5 basis points during H1FY2009 to 23.8% mainly on account of higher raw material cost. The raw material cost as percentage of sales increased by 135.4 basis points in H1FY2009 due to change in the revenue mix (higher contribution of stationery business to the top line). We expect the OPM to remain under pressure, as contribution from stationery business is expected to increase in H2FY2009. We have already taken into account the above-mentioned factors in our estimates for FY2009. Thus we expect the OPM to dip marginally by 46 basis points to 20.6% in FY2009.
Navneet Publications (India)
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs59
Current market price: Rs41




