HDFC Securities Analysis of Equity Moves by Mutual Funds in October 2008

November 14th, 2008 by | 1 Comment | Filed in Updates

This note analyses the equities moves in October 2008 by Mutual Funds having month-end equity corpuses of more than Rs.
3,000 cr (except Fidelity Mutual Fund whose portfolio for October 2008 was not available).
The source of data for this
analysis is NAV INDIA, who in turn takes into account the monthly-declared portfolios of the respective schemes wherever
available (excluding offshore funds, FMPs and new fund offers).
Summary:
In Oct 2008, Indian mutual funds registered their sharpest monthly fall in assets in at least a year, dragged by the stock market meltdown and heavy redemptions. This is the second consecutive monthly fall for mutual funds. The October drop seemed muted considering the heavy fall in the equity markets and redemptions in money market or liquid mutual funds, where banks and companies park their surplus money. The combined average assets under management (AUM) of the 35 fund houses in the country saw an erosion of over Rs 97,000 crore and dropped to Rs 4,31,901.42 crore at the end of October. Reliance Mutual Fund continues to be the top fund house in the country with HDFC MF and ICICI Prudential following it.
In lieu of the declining AUMs of the fund houses, last month the Reserve Bank of India had decided to inject Rs 20,000 crore through short-term lending route to help the mutual funds meet their liquidity needs and overcome redemption pressure At the end of October, investors redeemed funds worth Rs 46,793 crore, with maximum of withdrawals coming in fixed income plans. The redemptions in mutual fund schemes have been on the rise in the current fiscal, and in September they had witnessed withdrawals to the tune of Rs 45,655 crore. Fixed income plans, with assured returns annually, saw a maximum pullout of Rs 52,820 crore as on October, followed by equity funds investing in stocks worth Rs 706 crore. Fixed maturity plans have witnessed panic redemption in October on concerns about the credit quality of debt papers held by these schemes. Also, Gilt funds, which invest in government securities, and Gold Exchange Traded Fund saw inflows of Rs 3,725 and Rs 140 crore, respectively. Gilt funds are mutual fund schemes floated by asset management companies with exclusive investments in government securities. Within equity AUM, Reliance, UTI, HDFC saw the largest fall. However in terms of percentage, ICICI Prudential saw the maximum fall. During Oct 2008, Software stocks were in favour as defensive buys, while Banks-Private, Metals, Refineries, Electric Equipment and Contracting stocks got sold off. At micro level, buying was seen in HDFC Bank, Infosys, TCS and United Spirits among others.

-Contributed by a blogger

SanDisk Corporation join hands with HCL Infosystems

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Politics

November 14, 2008 – SanDisk Corporation India today announced a partnership with HCL Infosystems, India’s premier information enabler and country’s leading ICT system integrator and distribution company to be the distributors for SanDisk’s wide range of mobile phone memory cards in the Indian market.

Indian consumers are increasingly becoming reliant on their mobile phones and are using them to enjoy and share more content. In partnering with HCL, SanDisk will be able to leverage HCL’s expertise in ICT Distribution in India.

“The explosive growth of the mobile phone market in India has driven the need for SanDisk to increase its distribution capacity,” said Sanjay Mehrotra, president and chief operating officer, SanDisk Corporation. “Our partnership underlines the synergy with the mobile distribution capabilities of HCL and SanDisk’s exciting offering for mobile phones. With this partnership we aim to have a wider reach in one of the largest mobile markets in the world.”

Commenting on this new venture, Mr. J V Ramamurthy, chief operating officer, HCL Infosystems said, “About three decades back when we set up HCL and its support network across the country, we had the vision to take technologically advanced products to every doorstep. And having tied-up with SanDisk it gives us the opportunity to provide value added products to our customers.”

SanDisk’s offering for mobile phones includes mobile memory cards [microSD(HC) and M2] with capacities ranging from 2GB* to 16GB and also MobileMate™ USB readers (SDHC compatible) which provides users with a complete and versatile solution for transferring music, video, photos and other files between their mobile memory cards and computers. 

With a high capacity memory card in their mobile phone slots, consumers can do more with their mobile devices – be it storing more music, listening to more songs and/or saving more videos, photos, maps, ringtones and games.  For example, an 8GB mobile memory card can store 1,000 songs, 1,200 photos and 21 hours of video.[1]

“We see tremendous opportunity for our mobile storage products in India,” said Gavin Wu, Managing Director, SanDisk Corporation, Asia Pacific. “This alliance with HCL Infosystems will help us tap deeper into the fast-growing, digitally-savvy Indian marketplace.”

Alembic announces buy-back offer

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Politics

Vadodara: Pharma major, Vadodara based Alembic Limited, today announced that the company’s board of directors have approved a resolution to buy-back a minimum of 12,00,000 equity shares at a maximum buy back price of Rs 55/- per equity share.  The maximum amount of buy back shall be for an amount not exceeding Rs 3,300 lacs, constituting 9.69% of the paid-up capital & free reserves of the Company. The Board has appointed Edelweiss Capital Ltd as the Merchant Bankers for the buy-back program.

The buy-back proposal is being implemented in keeping with the Company’s desire to (a) to optimize returns to shareholders; and (b) enhance overall shareholder value. The buy-back would lead to reduction in outstanding number of equity shares, and consequent increase in earnings per equity share, improvement in return on net worth and other financial ratios.

Caribbean Development Bank Selects Oracle FLEXCUBE

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Politics

Mumbai : Oracle Financial Services Software, a majority owned subsidiary of Oracle, today announced that Caribbean Development Bank, one of the largest and most prominent development finance institutions in the Caribbean, has selected Oracle FLEXCUBE to meet its requirements for a state-of-the-art lending platform.
  The selection by the bank is the third by a development financial institution in the Caribbean/ Latin American region and the latest by a number of development financial institutions globally. 
  “This selection of FLEXCUBE by Caribbean Development Bank underlines our ability and expertise in providing solutions to development financial institutions. We are happy to be associated with one of the largest development banks in the region, and are confident that FLEXCUBE will help the bank now and in the future,” says N.R.K. Raman, Managing Director and CEO, Oracle Financial Services Software.

India Value Fund presents VC Circle “Investing in a perfect storm” in Hyderabad

November 14th, 2008 by | 1 Comment | Filed in Politics

- The VC Circle conference for the PE/VC industry is presented by India Value Fund and was held in Hyderabad on 13th November 2008 at the Taj Krishna Hotel
- The conference brought together the leading venture capital and private equity players, deal makers and companies in the country
- VC Circle is organizing its third private equity forum titled “Investing In A Perfect Storm”

Hyderabad, 13th November, 2008: India Value Fund presented the VC Circle conference titled “Investing in a perfect storm” in Hyderabad to bring together a large number of delegates representing Venture capital investors/PE Professional/Entrepreneurs/Late stage, growth capital & large companies/Investment bankers &advisers/Corporate professionals/policy makers/firms seeking capital.

Mr. George Thomas, Partner, India Value Fund and one of the speakers at the conference said, “IVF is delighted to be associated with such a prestigious forum and is aligned with IVF’s belief that there is huge and untapped potential for private equity and venture capital outside the main metros of India and in powerhouses of entrepreneurship like the city of Hyderabad.”
He added, “In the current market situation when the stock markets are at a two year low and the US and European markets have been in turmoil, fund raising in the current environment has gotten tough, but not impossible. The deals may have come down, but they are indeed happening. There are funds still sitting with cash and looking for deals in this market. So it’s not the time for inaction, but action. It’s not the end of the road, but just a sharp turn which you need to navigate carefully. The forum attempted to discuss all this and much more.”
There were a total of 19 panelists at the forum, all of whom were distinguished PE and VC partners and entrepreneurs who have tremendous experience. They covered topics related to private equity and the need for capital growth.

The forum also focused on infrastructure, healthcare and education along with the current market issues.
The topics of discussion included:

§ Is Indian private equity (and venture capital) all about growth capital investing?
§ Private equity beyond metros: Where, and what are the opportunities?
§ The India story – Domestic consumption, outsourcing, infrastructure development
§ Is US recession a threat or an opportunity for VC/ PE fund flows to India?
§ The impact of the stock market on unlisted/PE plays
§ What value does PE investor bring at mid- and growth- stage?
§ Are Indian entrepreneurs prepared for private equity investors?
§ Key issues in fund raising, valuation, due diligence
§ Entrepreneur’s first hand experiences with VC/PE funds

India Metals Companies Q2 FY09 Review

November 11th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Updates

Metal companies in Q2 FY09 reported strong numbers, led by higher steel realisations and better than expected revenue from by-products in non-ferrous companies. In our coverage universe of eight companies, except NALCO, all the companies registered inline or higher than expected topline numbers. Steel realisations in Q2 FY09 were higher ~10% qoq despite price freeze announced by the companies in Q1 FY09. Steel producers’ OPM remained under pressure due to the impact of higher coking coal used (contract prices were up 200%). Bottomline of most of the steel companies were impacted by MTM forex losses on their foreign currency loans. The credit crunch in global markets led to a sudden drop in demand for the metal. This in turn led to a rise in finished goods inventory by the end of September. Non-ferrous companies’ topline and PAT were aided by higher than expected revenue from its by-products. Most of the non-ferrous companies’ OPM were under pressure on account of higher coal and power costs.

By India Infoline Research

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Daiichi Sankyo Successfully Completes Ranbaxy Deal

November 7th, 2008 by | 1 Comment | Filed in Politics

November 07, 2008, Gurgaon and Tokyo – Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited (NSE/BSE: Ranbaxy/500359) (“Ranbaxy”) and Daiichi Sankyo Company Limited (TSE: 4568.JP) (“Daiichi Sankyo”) today announced the successful closure of their transformational deal with the execution of the final transfer of the remaining equity shares of the Singh family, in Ranbaxy. Pursuant to this, Daiichi Sankyo has now acquired 63.92% of the equity share capital of Ranbaxy comprising 268,711,323 shares as under:

Acquisition of Shares under Open Offer:  92,519,126
 
Allotment of Shares on Preferential basis :  46,258,063
 
Acquisition of Shares from the Singh family :  129,934,134
 
Mr. Takashi Shoda, President & CEO of Daiichi Sankyo said, “We are pleased to announce that all the planned transactions of this landmark deal have been successfully completed. We are determined to work with Ranbaxy to realize sustainable growth.”

Mr. Malvinder Mohan Singh, CEO & MD, Ranbaxy, said, “We are pleased that the deal has been closed successfully.  This puts us well on the path to create a hybrid business model that will unlock the strengths of both companies to bring unprecedented value to all stakeholders.”

Ranbaxy earlier had received an amount of Rs. 3,585 crores (USD 736 Million) from Daiichi Sankyo for the preferential issue of equity shares and warrants. This will be used to further drive the Company’s growth through organic and inorganic means while also retiring some debt at an appropriate time.

Continuing to operate as an independent & autonomous Company, Ranbaxy will work closely with Daiichi Sankyo to explore and optimise the growth opportunities across the pharmaceutical value chain.

India Cement Monthly Update – September 2008

November 6th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Updates
Cement Monthly Update – September 2008

 

In September 2008, India’s cement consumption grew 9.6% yoy, a sharp contrast to the weak performance in the previous month. However, the strong consumption growth is unlikely to sustain in coming months as the real estate market (largest consumer) in North and Central region continues to weaken. South market witnessed strong demand supporting firm pricing (up 4.7% yoy) in the region. However, prices might correct in the upcoming monsoon season. International coal prices and freight cost have come off significantly from their peaks but the sharp rupee deprecation of 6.3% during the month neutralizes the beneficial impact to an extent. The key concern remains the weakening cement demand due to a dip in construction and infrastructure activities in the country. We believe that cyclical downturn will start impacting realization sooner than later, leading to further contraction in margins of cement manufacturers. This could lead to de-growth in earnings for many industry players.

 

ä       Rebound in consumption growth; Central and South region outperform

ä       Contradictory pricing trend emerge; realizations remained robust in South

ä       Capacity utilization improves mom but remains lower yoy

ä       Key performers were players who have recently added capacities     

ä       Coal prices cool from peak; freight index falls to the lowest levels since 2002.

 

All-India cement figures

(mn tons)

Sep-08

Sep-07

Aug-08

yoy growth (%)

mom growth (%)

YTD’08

YTD ’07

yoy growth (%)

Production

13.86

12.76

13.16

8.62

5.32

132.08

122.76

7.59

Dispatches

13.87

12.65

13.19

9.64

5.16

131.86

122.37

7.76

Consumption

13.54

12.36

12.91

9.60

4.89

129.98

119.24

9.01

Cap Utilization (%)

81.43

88.49

77.30

-

-

90.05

88.49

-

By India Infoline Research

Update on FMCG sector stocks as on q2 FY09

November 6th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Updates

Performance of most companies in our universe was in line with our expectations during Q2 FY09. All companies recorded double digit revenue growth led by strong volume growth across segments. However, operating margins remained under pressure due to a sharp rise in raw material prices. Over the past month, most of the key raw material prices like LAB, crude oil and palm oil have started correcting and are expected to ease the margin pressure in the coming quarters. Food companies though, are likely to continue to witness margin pressure on account of firm agri commodity prices. Most players have taken measures like price hikes and reduction in pack sizes to mitigate cost pressures. We continue to remain positive on the sector with ITC and Marico as our top picks.

 

Valuation summary

Company

CMP

EPS (Rs)

P/E (x)

 

(Rs)

FY09E

FY10E

FY09E

FY10E

Britannia

      1,176

95.9

111.8

12.3

10.5

Colgate

          378

20.2

23.6

18.8

16.0

Dabur

            88

4.5

5.3

19.8

16.7

GLSM*

          571

43.5

49.1

13.1

11.6

Godrej CP

          104

6.8

8.1

15.2

12.7

HUL*

          238

9.6

11.3

24.9

21.0

ITC

          170

9.2

10.7

18.5

15.9

Marico

            51

3.0

3.8

16.6

13.4

Nestle*

      1,417

58.6

70.2

24.2

20.2

Soruce: Indiainfoline updates.

 

World Equity Markets Lost $5.8 Trillion in October

November 4th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Politics