Credit Suisse on India Cement Sector

November 16th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Research

? An analysis of the impact of the ongoing liquidity crunch on the
India cement sector shows that most companies appear to be
comfortably placed in terms of liquidity.
? Most cement players do not have high amounts of leverage, and a
large proportion of existing loans are fixed rate debts. Floating
rates on working capital loans have increased by 250-300 bp, but
have yet to have a meaningful impact on borrowing costs –
although this could change, particularly during 4Q FY09.
? Expansion projects which are in the early stages of
implementation could be delayed or shelved altogether if liquidity
remains tight. We believe that this should positively impact the
industry as it will limit the degree of oversupply in FY10 and FY11.
? We do not see any of the projects planned over the next two-three
years by coverage companies being scrapped, although some
delays are likely. India Cements, Grasim and Ultratech appear
strongly placed given the high visibility on their expansion plans.
Valuations remain attractive; maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Liquidity not an issue for the sector… yet
Most cement manufacturers appear to be relatively comfortably
placed in terms of liquidity – the favourable demand-supply balance in
recent years has led to strong cash generation for most companies,
thereby reducing their borrowing requirements despite large capex.
The companies we spoke to indicated that a large proportion of their
debt is currently at fixed rates, and they have therefore not seen any
large impact on financing costs. However, these companies have
reported that interest rates on floating rate borrowings (largely on
working capital loans) have risen to the tune of 250-300 bp over the
past three months, and they are therefore avoiding drawing against
these limits as far as is possible.
Owing to the seasonal nature of the cement demand, companies
report that they are still to see any real pressure on working capital
requirement, given the lower levels of business activity during
monsoon. However, the January-March quarter, which traditionally
sees the strongest sales by cement companies (and increased
working capital requirements as a result), could lead to some strain on
borrowing costs for cement manufacturers if the liquidity situation
remains tight – and companies are now looking to insulate themselves
against such an eventuality by securing additional sanctioned limits.
We believe that it is highly unlikely that loan covenants for these
companies will be breached, given their low gearing and strong
interest coverage positions, as well as positive free cash flows.

Expansion plans could be put on hold going forward
The capacity expansion initiatives of cement companies, however, are
a different story. While we believe that new capacities which are in
advanced stages of implementation (i.e., projects with a large
proportion of the capital expenditure already done and where civil
works have begun) are likely to be completed, we expect projects
which are still in the early stages of planning to be deferred or shelved
altogether due to liquidity constraints going forward.
Impact on the competitive environment
We believe that delays in capacity additions are likely to lead to a
lower degree of oversupply in the industry than the market is currently
expecting, and the resultant fall in cement prices is also likely to be
lower. Our estimates currently factor in an 11% drop in cement prices
from current levels up to FY11E, versus a 18.5% drop during
December 2000 to September 202.
The (relative) winners and losers in our coverage
Given lower visibility on future capacities, we believe the likely winners
in our coverage are India Cements, Grasim and Ultratech – as
capacity expansions for these companies are all nearing completion
and are unlikely to require any further large outlays of cash going
forward, thus lending comfort to our estimates. We are more cautious
on the expansion plans for ACC and Ambuja, which are expected to
be spread over 2009 and 2010, although the strong cash positions of
these companies should ensure completion of projects.
Overall, we remain positive on the prospects for the India Cement
sector as valuations remain attractive. We believe the sector could be
a strong defensive play in the current environment, given the strong
liquidity positions of most companies. India Cements, Grasim and
Ultratech remain our top picks.

-Contributed by a blogger

NTT DOCOMO and Tatas in Alliance in India

November 16th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Politics

Mumbai: NTT DOCOMO, INC. (DOCOMO), Tata Teleservices Limited (TTSL) and Tata Sons Limited—the prime promoter for Tata companies including TTSL—today announced their agreement on a strategic alliance in India, under which DOCOMO will acquire 26 per cent of TTSL’s stock for approximately Rs 13,070 crore (US $2.7 billion).

In addition, DOCOMO, in accordance with regulations of the Securities and Exchange Board of India, expects to make an open offer to acquire up to 20% of outstanding equity shares of Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Limited (TTML), a Tata telecommunication company, through a joint tender offer along with Tata Sons.

As a result of the capital alliance, the partners expect to expand mobile communication operations in the fast-growing Indian mobile market, aiming to increase operating revenue and achieve steady business growth.

TTSL and TTML, both based in Mumbai, are telecommunications units of the Tata business, India’s largest conglomerate in terms of operating revenues. Both companies have high-quality wireless networks spanning the entire country and also have a large number of retail stores and customer-service outlets. TTSL & TTML have rapidly increased their combined share of the fast-growing Indian mobile market. They are rapidly expanding their subscriber bases, which currently stand at over 30 million combined.

Tokyo-based DOCOMO, the world’s leading mobile operator, has played a major role in the evolution of mobile telecommunications through its development of cutting-edge technologies and services. The company is a strong market leader used by over 50 per cent of Japan’s mobile phone users. DOCOMO will work closely with TTSL’s management and provide know-how to help the company develop its mobile business. TTSL expects to leverage DOCOMO’s expertise in the development and delivery of value-added services, where DOCOMO is a firmly established market leader.

NCDEX and NSE float new power exchange

November 16th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Commodities, Politics

MUMBAI: The business operations of Power Exchange India Ltd (PXIL), an electricity exchange promoted as a joint venture between two of the largest and most respected exchanges in the capital and commodity markets respectively, NSE and NCDEX, was inaugurated by the Hon’ble Minister of Power, Shri Sushilkumar Shinde at a function held in New Delhi today.
PXIL aims to provide an easy to access, fully electronic market place which provides substantial benefits to buyers and sellers of Power.
Both NSEIL and NCDEX bring with them deep rooted understanding of shaping Indian Capital and Commodity markets. Their presence in the venture provides PXIL the required wisdom and strength in its efforts to create a truly vibrant market in electricity.
PXIL has also attracted the equity partnership from Power Finance Corporation (PFC), Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd. (GUVNL), JSW Energy, GMR Energy and Jindal Power Ltd.
The function also witnessed the launch of a financial product by PFC for “Financing of power purchase on PXIL”. PFC has taken a professional clearing membership on PXIL and would be supporting members on PXIL for purchasing power through this product.
Electricity Act 2003 had laid down a framework for developing a competitive power market in India. The National Electricity Policy and various subsequent regulations, including the issuance of a staff paper on development of a common platform for trading of electricity by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), have propelled the implementation of a market framework in sync with Indian realities.
Power markets around the world have structures where a large part of the demand is catered to by capacity tied-up through long term contracts. Seasonal or daily variations in demand are managed through trades in the day ahead or short term market. In such a context power exchanges serve an important purpose in as much as they enable matching of seasonal or short term surpluses and deficits of various participants in the market in a transparent and efficient manner. As markets mature even the longer term contracts are often cleared through the exchanges to ensure adequate transparency and security.
In India, generation capacity planning had been done for each State independently, with some efforts by the Central Government in later years to create generation capacity through CPSUs at a regional level. A  silo like approach to load management with most of the generation capacity tied-up in long term contracts tends to not only under exploit potential but also exaggerates daily or seasonal shortages plaguing the sector .
In such a scenario, the emergence of a Power exchange would help optimise the utilisation of existing generation capacities in the country by utilising complementarities in widely varying demand profiles for various states across regions.  In an Exchange platform buyers and sellers of power can come to trade their seasonal or time of the day surpluses and deficits with each other. This common platform is being institutionalised in the form of a Power Exchange which can remove information asymmetry and reduce price arbitrages.
In addition to the temporal surpluses occurring across India at various times of the day, which can be optimally utilised by trading on the exchange, India also has a large untapped captive power capacity which is connected to the grid and can be utilised. This source has immense potential of entering into the day-ahead power market through PXIL and efforts are being made to further enhance liquidity on the exchange by tapping these captive power generators across the country with a low cost of entry and operational flexibilities so as to enable them to sell surpluses through PXIL.
Most of the installed generation capacity is owned by government utilities, who would be participating in the power exchange to manage their demand profiles. However, these utilities may not have the necessary processes to manage day-to-day fund flows which is required on the exchange, since initial margins for the electricity to be traded has to be provided on an exchange on a day to day basis. Recognizing this need, Power Finance Corporation, the largest lender in the power sector has created to product to assist in financing of power purchase of members on PXIL.
Furthermore, the trend of power developers keeping some of the installed capacity free for trades in the short term market is also fast catching up. An active role in PXIL would help PFC in keeping abreast with such significant developments and their impact on power sector financing.

Religare finalizes Rights Issue of Rs 1802 crores at Rs 355 per share

November 16th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results

Mumbai: Religare Enterprises Limited (REL), one of the leading integrated financial services groups of India, in its Board meeting today has decided to go ahead with a Rights Issue subject to regulatory approvals. REL proposes raising of funds of Rs. 1802.48 crores through issue of shares on Rights basis (Rights Issue) in the ratio of 2:3 at a price of Rs. 355 per share and the Promoters have given a firm commitment to subscribe for the unsubscribed portion, if any, of the said Rights Issue.

The Draft Letter of Offer (DLOO) is proposed to be filed with SEBI around the first week of December ‘08. The networth of REL is expected to go up to approximately Rs 2400 crores following the Rights Issue.

The objective of the proposed Rights Issue is to further add momentum to the multi dimensional growth plans of the company. REL whose IPO was oversubscribed a record almost 161 times is listed on the Exchanges since November 2007.

REL’s market capitalisation stood at Rs 2416 crore (as on 24 October 2008), the share price closed at Rs 325.25 (29 October 2008 EOD).

Results Update: Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (Q2 FY09)

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results, Updates

 

ä       Net sales up 11.6% yoy, driven by robust growth in volumes for UV and three-wheelers

ä       Tractor volumes remain muted but realizations jump 25%

ä       OPM declines 462bps yoy on account of higher raw material cost and lower octori duty refund

ä       89.1% yoy jump in other income restricts decline in profit

ä       Bumper Rabi crop and farm loan waiver will lead to strong demand from the rural areas

ä       Change rating from BUY to Market Performer due to steep appreciation in stock price

Results Update: Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd (Q2 FY09)

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results, Updates
Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd (Q2 FY09)

 

ä       Strong realisations continue to bolster topline by 86.1% yoy

ä       Rising raw material costs lead to a 520bps yoy drop in OPM

ä       GPIL plans to sell higher amount of sponge iron than billets in the next two quarters

ä       Iron ore mining expected to start in Q3 FY09, earlier than expected

ä       The company announces a buyback at a price not exceeding Rs135 per share

Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM) q2 results

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results

Mumbai: Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM) today announced its unaudited consolidated financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.

Highlights of the financial performance for the quarter are:

§ Net Profit of Rs. 1,531 crore (US$ 330 million), higher by 17.3% compared to Net Profit of Rs. 1,305 crore (US$ 328 million) in the corresponding quarter last year.

§ EBITDA at Rs. 2,302 crore (US$ 496 million), growth of 17.3%. EBITDA margin at 40.8% with strong contributions across all businesses – Wireless, Global and Enterprise.

§ Revenue growth of 23.3% at Rs. 5,645 crore (US$ 1,215 million) from Rs. 4,579 crore (US$ 1,152 million).

§ Return on Net Worth is 31.8% reflecting improved resource utilization.  

§ Shareholders Equity (Net Worth) increases to Rs. 28,160 crore (US$ 6 billion) – among the top three companies in India.

§ Conservative capital structure – Net Debt to Equity Ratio maintained at a conservative level of 0.54:1, despite capex spend of Rs. 4,773 crore (US$ 1 billion) during the quarter.

 
CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS

§ RCOM announced another unprecedented customer benefit “Lifetime Jaadu Pack”

RCOM announced another customer friendly innovative offer “Lifetime Jaadu Pack”. This offer is available to all lifetime validity customers. The subscribers need to recharge once with Lifetime Jaadu pack worth Rs. 550 to avail the discounted tariff of Re. 0.5/min for all local calls and Re. 1/min for all STD calls. The offer is valid to all calls made to any network at anytime in the day.

§ Reliance Communications to offer free laptop with Reliance Internet Data Card

RCOM announced a strategic alliance with leading IT giants Acer, Asus, HCL, Intel, and Lenovo to offer branded laptops absolutely free with its hi-speed Internet data card service branded Reliance NetConnect. The initiative would offer a free laptop with unlimited Internet package with price as low as Rs. 1500 per month for two years with no hidden costs.

§ Launch of Reliance BIG TV

RCOM launched its DTH services “BIG TV” on 19 August 2008. BIG TV acquired 500,000 subscribers within 60 days of launch. This is the fastest ramp up ever achieved by any DTH operator in the world. BIG TV would be tapping into the existing customer base of Reliance ADA Group companies to rapidly gain market share. The subscribers can enjoy over 200 channels, 32 on-demand channels, which is highest in the industry. The product is available initially in 1 lakh retail outlets across 6,500 towns.

RAYMOND LIMITED – FINANCIAL RESULTS Q2 FY 2008-2009

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results

 Standalone Net Sales at Rs 434 crores; up 25% over same period previous year
Textile segment profits up by 49%
Standalone Operating EBITDA witnessed 44% Y-o-Y growth on back of strong branded sales
Mumbai, October 31, 2008: Raymond Limited today announced its un-audited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2008.
The textile segment sales registered an increase of 22% to Rs 370 crores driven by robust market demand. The textile segmental profit amounted to Rs 80 crore as compared to Rs 54 crore in same quarter in the previous year, an increase of 49% due to improved performance. The profit margin of the textile segment improved to 22% from 18% due to better product mix, higher realization and volume growth.

The net sales of Files & Tools segment was up by 42% to Rs 59 crores backed by excellent growth rates in realization and higher volumes, especially in international markets. The segmental profit was also up to Rs 8 crores from Rs 2 crores in the same quarter of the previous year. The profit margin of Files & Tools segment improved to 14% from 5%.

The Group’s branded apparel businesses continued its blistering pace of growth and logged sales growth rates close to 27% for the quarter over same period previous year.

The Group added 21 stores and retail space of 46000 sq. ft. during the quarter. The retail sales of the company have grown by 27% over the same period previous year. Like-to-like sales of the company stores have grown over 16%.

The Standalone Net Profit for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 was Rs 24 crores.

The standalone profitability was affected on account of forex loss of Rs 12 crores due to translation losses on foreign exchange borrowings, as opposed to a translation gain of Rs 8 crores in the same quarter of the previous year.

The first phase of the proposed suit plant with capacity of 1800 suits per day commenced operations in September 2008. The Vapi Phase III expansion is on schedule and the plant will commence operation from Q4FY09.

The Group’s carded woolen outerwear Joint Venture with Lanificio Fedora was terminated w.e.f. 9th August 2008. The name of the company has been changed to “Raymond Woolen Outerwear Ltd.” and has now become a subsidiary of Raymond Ltd.

Announcing the results, Mr. Gautam Hari Singhania, Chairman & Managing Director, Raymond Limited said, “Our robust performance in these testing times across all our business categories including our core business is a testimony to the strength of our brand franchise and the reach of our retail and distribution network. Though the current financial turmoil could bring with it its own share of uncertainties we are bullish on India consumption story and we believe that with our inherent strengths we will sustain our current performance.”

Hindalco Industries Ltd. 2n quarter results

November 14th, 2008 by | 2 Comments | Filed in Results

Hindalco Industries Ltd., the flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended 30 September 2008.
Net sales and revenues have grown by 14% to Rs. 5,683.2 crores as compared to Rs. 4,966.9 crores for the corresponding period in FY 08. Despite the unrelenting input cost push that squeezed margins, the net profit for the quarter at Rs. 720 crores is up by 12%, vis-à-vis Rs. 642.6 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Of the total revenue of Rs. 5,683.2 crores, the aluminium business contributed Rs. 2,120.5 crores as compared to Rs. 1,792.2 crores in corresponding period in previous year. The profit before interest and tax for aluminium business was at Rs. 715.1 crores as against Rs. 661.9 crores in the corresponding quarter in the previous year driven by production, asset sweating, higher LME and a weaker Rupee. Rising input cost, lower production of downstream products have constrained profit to an extent.
In the copper business, revenues stood at Rs.3,565.3 crores up by 12% vis-à-vis  from Rs. 3,178.3 crores in Q2FY08 on back of higher realization, enriched market mix and a weaker rupee. The profit before interest and tax grew to Rs. 138.1 crores from Rs. 126.1 crores in the corresponding quarter last year despite a 44% fall in TcRc, mainly due to better by-product realisation and operational efficiencies.
The steep depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar affected the copper business by an estimated Rs. 213.9 crore for the quarter under review, as a result of restatement of net foreign currency exposures as on 30th September 2008.  For the corresponding quarter of the previous year, this had an estimated favourable impact of Rs. 38.3 crores. Consequently, the PBIT of copper business is lower than the corresponding quarter of the previous year by Rs.252.2 crores.

Take out of Bridge Loan
The company is pleased to announce the repayment of the USD 3.03 Billion bridge facility taken to fund the acquisition of Novelis Inc on May 16, 2007. The bridge facility is to be repaid by November 12, 2008.
The repayment of the bridge facility was financed partly by way of rights issue of equity shares to the existing shareholders, and as to the balance, by way of term debt and internal accruals.
Rights Issue
The Company has issued 525,802,403 equity shares of Re 1 each on rights basis at a price of Rs. 96 per share as fully paid-up vide Letter of Offer dated 13th September, 2008 against which allotment has been made for 473,398,534 equity shares on 23rd October, 2008. The net proceeds of the issue are being utilized to part finance repayment of bridge loan taken for acquisition of Novelis during last year.

Other Sources
The balance of the bridge loan will be repaid by sourcing debt financing and liquidation of treasury. 
Operational Review
Aluminium
With the expansion at Muri and Hirakud, Alumina production has risen up by 34% at Muri and Metal production by 39% at Hirakud. The overall metal production was up by 11%.  
Lower production of rolled products is mainly due to stoppage of cold rolling mill at Mouda, which is now operational. The extrusion production at Alupuram has been impacted by 25
% power cut by the state electricity board. Foil production is lower on account of changes in product mix.

 

Expansion projects
Muri The expansion of the Muri alumina refinery from 110,000 tpa to 450,000 tpa is mechanically complete. Production is being ramped up in a phased manner. The entire steam and power requirement is being met by the new captive power plant. The production from the expanded facility is slated to reach its full capacity by the end of the year.
Hirakud Phase II of the expansion of the smelting capacity from 100,000 tpa to 143,000 tpa was completed on time. Further work on expansion to 151 KTA is in progress and is expected to be over by August 2009.   The power generation capacity has been raised from 267.5 mw to 367.5 mw. All the units have been commissioned.
Belgaum The allotment of the lease of bauxite mines for expanding the alumina refinery capacity at Belgaum, Karnataka from 350 ktpa to 650 ktpa is still awaited.
Aditya Aluminium Project Aditya Aluminium, the integrated aluminium project, encompassing 1 to 1.5 million tpa alumina refinery, 260,000 to 359,000 tpa aluminium smelter and 750 to 900 mw captive power plant is on track. A major portion of the total land required for the project has been acquired. Environmental clearances have been obtained for the smelter, the captive power plant (CPP) and the alumina refinery. The water drawal agreement has also been executed. The power for construction is already in place. The construction of transmission lines and upgradation of substations to draw power are in progress. The first metal from the smelter is scheduled to be produced by October 2011. The refinery is due to be mechanically completed by January 2013. The technology contracts for the smelter and alumina have been executed with Aluminium Pechiney and Alcan respectively. The basic engineering activities for the smelter and CPP have commenced. The enquiries for long delivery equipments and packages have been floated; these are to be finalized before the end of this fiscal year.
Mahan project The Mahan aluminium project with a smelter capacity of 359 ktpa and CPP of 900 mw is on track. The land acquisition for the project is underway. The company has been allotted a coal block in a JV with the Essar group for the coal requirement of the CPP. Preliminary environmental clearances have been obtained. The power connectivity for commencing construction has been approved. The water resource department has allocated the necessary water source. The production of coal is expected to start by October 2009. The technology contract for the smelter has already been executed with Aluminium Pechiney. The basic engineering activities for the smelter and CPP are in progress and first metal from the smelter is expected by July 2011. The enquiries for long delivery equipments and packages have been floated, and will be finalized before the end of this fiscal year.
Jharkhand project The proposed smelter capacity of the Jharkhand aluminium project is 359 ktpa and a CPP of 900 mw. The plant location is being shifted from Latehar to Sonahatu block which is 20 kilometers from Muri and 55 kilometers from Ranchi. The company has submitted an application for the government land. The government of Jharkhand has given the water allocation clearance for 55 mcm of water from Subernrekha basin. Tubed coal mine has been allotted jointly with Tata Power. The technology contract for the smelter has already been executed with Aluminium Pechiney. The tentative date for the first metal from the smelter is June 2012.
Utkal The construction of Utkal alumina refinery with a proposed capacity of 1.5 mtpa is currently underway. The company has acquired the land for the plant and other facilities. The basic engineering packages have already been received from Alcan (technology supplier). Major packages have been ordered. The detailed engineering for the main plant area is nearing completion. The civil works for alumina refinery and captive power plant is in progress. Bauxite mining activities are expected to start by end 2009. The mechanical completion of the plant is slated for January 2011 and the first alumina is expected to be produced around July 2011.
Hindalco Almex Aerospace Limited This joint venture company for the manufacture of high-strength aluminium alloys for applications in the aerospace, sporting goods and surface transport industries is at an advanced stage of implementation. All key equipments have arrived at the site and are under commissioning. The project will be completed shortly.
Industry outlook
Aluminium
Global aluminium demand growth is now expected at 6% as against the earlier estimate of 8%. The sharp slow down in Global demand will result in higher inventory in 2009-2010 with the US recession and its extension to Europe having a major impact. China is also showing signs of moderation after a sharp run up in demand.
At the same time, weakness in supply is a comforting factor as capacities are shutting down in the western world, Africa and recently in China due to power related issues.
Falling aluminium prices are leading to cuts in production/capacities as increasingly capacities become unviable. China is expected to be net importer in 2009.

Copper
Low exchange stocks and strong fund interest in base metals maintained copper prices at higher level during this period. However, tighter credit policy and slower investment growth are likely to slow down copper demand growth globally. While recent disruptions at major Mines could affect the copper supply side, this is not likely to change the overall stocks significantly due to a fall in consumption in US and Europe. Global copper consumption is likely to increase by 3.2 % this year.

Smelter production worldwide is adversely affected due to lower copper in concentrates and use of more complex materials. Smelters in Asia other than China are well covered in the short term which has improved spot TCRC from last quarter. Negotiations for 2009 between the Mines and Smelters are likely to be prolonged as while Smelters would ask for substantial improvement in TCRC over last year due to sharp decline in the sulphuric acid prices, Mines would resist due to the expected decline in copper prices.

Prices have come under severe pressure and would continue to be depressed in the current unstable macro economic environment

Company outlook
The business will be impacted by the overall slow down in the global economy. The short-term outlook seems negative, however long term market fundamentals remain strong.
The adverse macro-economic factors will continue to impact the business. The company is closely monitoring changes in the global economic and business landscape and taking proactive measures to tide over and emerge stronger from the global crisis. The ramp up of brownfield expansions, enhanced asset productivity and containment of input cost along with effective working capital management to maximise free cash flow will be the major growth drivers

Broking firm ShareKhan review on Q2FY09 (Jul-Sep) Corporate Earnings

November 14th, 2008 by | No Comments | Filed in Results, Updates

Q2FY2009 earnings review – Key points

-The Sensex’ earnings (adjusted for the one-time items) grew by nearly 10.1% in Q2FY2009 on the back of the strong performance of the financial service companies (earnings up 30% year on year [yoy]), telecommunications (telecom) companies (earnings up 28% yoy) and capital goods companies (earnings up 18% yoy). However, the Sensex (excluding the oil companies) saw an earnings growth of 13.4% yoy during the quarter and the same is ahead of our estimate of a 10.1% earnings growth for the quarter. 
-Notably, the revenue growth for the Sensex companies (ex-oil and banking companies) was healthy at 28.3% yoy. However, the same could not translate into an equally good operating performance largely due to a 228-basis-point contraction in the operating profit margin (OPM) and a higher capital cost. The margins in most sectors were affected by the rising input cost, employee cost (especially provisions for wage hikes by the public sector undertakings [PSUs] as per the Sixth Pay Commission’s recommendations) and a steep spike in the cost of power & fuel (both coal and oil). The margin contraction was more pronounced in case of automobile, cement, real estate (read DLF), pharmaceutical, cement and oil & gas sectors. On the other hand, metal and information technology (IT) companies registered an expansion in their EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) margin on an annual comparison basis. 
-In terms of a strong performance, telecom and banking sectors positively surprised the markets. The telecom companies have proven their ability to grow in spite of a worsening economic environment whereas the banking sector has reported a higher than expected credit growth, healthy margins and a buoyant growth in the fee-based incomes (in case of the private sector banks).
-Though the second quarter’s earnings growth is ahead of expectations, the signs of stress are quite evident. The utilisation rates have declined in key manufacturing sectors and the working capital cycle is deteriorating. In addition, the management commentary indicates possible delays in the investment/expansion plans of companies on account of the difficulty in mobilising fresh capital (both equity and debt) and the worsening demand environment. Despite the recent easing of the macro challenges (in terms of lower commodity prices and a reversal in the interest rate cycle), the earnings growth momentum could decelerate further in the coming quarters. 
-The second quarter results season witnessed a sharp downward revision in the earnings estimates for the Sensex companies. Now the consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate for FY2009 stands at Rs933, sharply down from Rs972 at the beginning of the results season. For FY2010 also, the consensus EPS estimate for the Sensex has been reduced by 4.6% to Rs1,076. As anticipated, the main culprits are the metal stocks and Reliance Industries. In view of the collapse in the commodity prices and the sharp deterioration in the demand outlook, analysts have cut the FY2009 and FY2010 estimates for the metal stocks like Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel and Sterlite Industries by 40-60%. Tata Motors is another company that has seen a massive downward revision in its earnings estimate because of its sliding domestic sales and the worsening outlook for its international operations (especially Jaguar and Land Rover [JLR]). 
-After the sharp downward revision in October, the compounded earnings growth estimate for the Sensex stands at around 12-13% vs 20-22% in the beginning of the year. In fact, the Sensex’ compounded earnings growth estimate for FY2008-2010 would drop to single digits if one were to exclude the incremental earnings from the commissioning of Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL)’s refinery and the production of gas at the Krishna-Godavari Basin of Reliance Industries in FY2010. After the steep revision in the earnings estimates for India Inc over the past nine months, most of the negatives already seem to be factored in the estimates. Hence, there is perhaps limited scope for another round of serious earnings downgrades in future. Currently, the Sensex trades at 10.5x FY2009 and 9.2x FY2010 estimated earnings, which is close to its historic low level.